Russell Wilson Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Russell Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Russell Wilson

QB · Denver Broncos

Completions

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 7, 2022 12:20 AM EST

Analysis

Russell Wilson Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+109/-142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos O-line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Russell Wilson's passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 59.0%.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in football against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (68.5%).

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