Royce Freeman Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Royce Freeman

NFL · Player Props

Royce Freeman

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Carries

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Royce Freeman Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Arizona's group of LBs has been terrible this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects the Rams as the 9th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 40.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Rams to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Our trusted projections expect Royce Freeman to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game in this contest (26.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (48.1% in games he has played).

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