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Roschon Johnson

Roschon Johnson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys

Roschon Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1000/-2000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2000.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.

The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 59.0 plays per game.

The model projects Roschon Johnson to be a much smaller part of his offense's ground game near the end zone this week (3.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been last year (26.7% in games he has played).

The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 11th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Cowboys, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.2 per game) since the start of last season.

With a very bad ratio of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Roschon Johnson stands as one of the bottom receiving TD-scorers in the NFL among running backs last year.

Roschon Johnson has run for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (89th percentile).

Since the start of last season, the weak Cowboys run defense has allowed a whopping 1.53 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the highest rate in the NFL.

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