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Roschon Johnson

Roschon Johnson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Roschon Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1000/-2000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2000.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.
  • The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 59.0 plays per game.
  • The model projects Roschon Johnson to be a much smaller part of his offense's ground game near the end zone this week (3.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been last year (26.7% in games he has played).
  • The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 11th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Cowboys, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.2 per game) since the start of last season.
  • With a very bad ratio of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Roschon Johnson stands as one of the bottom receiving TD-scorers in the NFL among running backs last year.
  • Roschon Johnson has run for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (89th percentile).
  • Since the start of last season, the weak Cowboys run defense has allowed a whopping 1.53 rushing TDs per game to opposing teams: the highest rate in the NFL.

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