Rondale Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Rondale Moore

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Rondale Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 68.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Rondale Moore's 41.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 23.4.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Completion% in football (68.4%) versus wide receivers this year (68.4%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Rondale Moore to be a much smaller part of his team's passing game near the goal line this week (19.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).
Rondale Moore has notched a mere 10.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 15th percentile among WRs.
Rondale Moore's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 83.5% to 71.1%.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.