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Robert Woods

Robert Woods Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Robert Woods Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -3.5-point underdogs.

The projections expect the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.0% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Robert Woods's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 56.9% to 64.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Robert Woods's 10.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 34.6.

The Houston O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Robert Woods's 1.4 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a substantial drop-off in his receiving ability over last season's 3.1 rate.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Kansas City's group of LBs has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

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