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Robert Woods

Robert Woods Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Robert Woods Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The model projects Robert Woods to earn 7.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among wideouts.

Robert Woods's 51.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 44.5.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The predictive model expects the Texans as the 8th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.2% pass rate.

Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the league.

The Texans offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Robert Woods's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.5% to 58.0%.

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