Robert Woods Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Robert Woods

NFL · Player Props

Robert Woods

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Robert Woods Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+293/-514).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -478 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -514.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Robert Woods to be a more important option in his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (23.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.0% in games he has played).
Robert Woods's 47.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 77th percentile for wide receivers.
Robert Woods's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 66.1% to 69.8%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 52.5 plays per game.
Robert Woods has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (42.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).
The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Houston Texans pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.4%) vs. WRs this year (63.4%).

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