Robert Woods Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Robert Woods

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Robert Woods Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+339/-645).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +341 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +339.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 7th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Robert Woods has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.9% this year, which puts him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have used play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.7 plays per game.
Robert Woods has posted quite a few less air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Robert Woods ranks in the 23rd percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a lowly 0.09 per game.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the lowest Completion% in the league (59%) versus wide receivers this year (59.0%).