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Robert Tonyan

Robert Tonyan Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs

Robert Tonyan Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+5000/-23000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -8250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -23000.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the most pass-focused team in football (69.9% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs.

The projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-fewest touchdowns in football (0.25 per game) against the Jaguars defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) typically prompt worse passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.

Robert Tonyan has been not been very involved his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in football vs. the Jaguars defense this year (64.9% Adjusted Completion%).

The Jaguars linebackers profile as the 2nd-best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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