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Rico Dowdle

Rico Dowdle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Rico Dowdle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+385/-600).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +410 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +385.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their typical approach.
  • At the moment, the 4th-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (60.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Carolina Panthers.
  • The predictive model expects Rico Dowdle to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game near the end zone in this week's game (33.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (45.5% in games he has played).
  • While Rico Dowdle has garnered 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Carolina's offense near the end zone in this week's game at 5.5%.
  • The New England Patriots defense has been gouged for the most receiving touchdowns in the league to RBs: 0.35 per game since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Panthers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Carolina Panthers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.0 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Patriots defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the league.
  • The receiving TD column reads "0" on Rico Dowdle's box scores this year.
  • With a stellar ratio of 0.25 touchdowns on the ground per game (78th percentile), Rico Dowdle ranks as one of the leading rushing touchdown-scorers in football this year.

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