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Rico Dowdle

Rico Dowdle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Rico Dowdle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+136/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -154.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Panthers are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • The model projects the Panthers to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.
  • Rico Dowdle places in the 81st percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a massive 14.6 figure this year.
  • The Carolina offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • This year, the weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 90.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the highest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Carolina Panthers as the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see just 125.9 total plays run: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • Rico Dowdle has earned 54.2% of his team's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Rico Dowdle has put up a mere -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 23rd percentile among RBs.

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