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Rico Dowdle

Rico Dowdle Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Rico Dowdle Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-103/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -106.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Panthers are a 4-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
  • At the present time, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (59.3% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Panthers.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • While Rico Dowdle has been responsible for 4.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Carolina's offense near the end zone in this week's game at 10.7%.
  • When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Panthers grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Panthers to pass on 55.9% of their downs: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the predictive model to have just 127.5 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number among all games this week.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Falcons, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 27.1 per game) this year.
  • Rico Dowdle has garnered 54.3% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
  • Rico Dowdle has rushed for 0.45 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (88th percentile).

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