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Rico Dowdle

Rico Dowdle Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Rico Dowdle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -13-point disadvantage, the Panthers are massive underdogs this week, implying much more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.
  • The Panthers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 59.9 plays per game.
  • The Packers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (41.7 per game) this year.
  • Rico Dowdle's 47.3% snap rate this season marks an impressive drop-off in his offensive usage over last season's 57.4% rate.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 9th-best in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Carolina Panthers.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) usually prompt lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.
  • Rico Dowdle's 1.4 adjusted catches per game this year represents a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 2.4 figure.
  • As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Green Bay's safety corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in football.

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