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Rico Dowdle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-108/-118).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -108.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Panthers are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 130.5 total plays run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.The projections expect Rico Dowdle to accrue 3.2 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.With an impressive 10.1% Target Share (83rd percentile) this year, Rico Dowdle stands as one of the RB receiving threats with the most usage in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At the present time, the least pass-oriented team in the NFL (58.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Panthers.Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) generally mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume.The Rams pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.1%) to RBs this year (78.1%).As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Los Angeles's safety corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL.
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