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Rico Dowdle

Rico Dowdle Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Rico Dowdle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -13-point disadvantage, the Panthers are massive underdogs this week, implying much more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan.
  • The Panthers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 59.9 plays per game.
  • The Packers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (41.7 per game) this year.
  • Rico Dowdle's 47.3% snap rate this season marks an impressive drop-off in his offensive usage over last season's 57.4% rate.
  • When talking about air yards, Rico Dowdle grades out in the towering 85th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a colossal 2.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Carolina Panthers.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) usually prompt lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.
  • Rico Dowdle's talent in generating extra yardage have tailed off this year, notching just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.97 rate last year.
  • The Green Bay Packers defense has allowed the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 25.0) to running backs this year.

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