Rico Dowdle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Rico Dowdle

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Rico Dowdle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme to tilt 5.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
Rico Dowdle rates as one of the most effective receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, averaging an excellent 7.41 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 77th percentile.
With an outstanding 10.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (80th percentile) this year, Rico Dowdle rates as one of the leading RB receiving threats in the league in space.
This year, the porous Giants defense has been gouged for the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing RBs: a massive 6.65 yards.

Favors Under

With a 17.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 53.9% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Cowboys offense to be the 9th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.38 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.
Rico Dowdle has put up a puny -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 20th percentile among RBs.