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Richie James

Richie James Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Richie James Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-151/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -151.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week.

As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

With an outstanding 81.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Richie James ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in football among wideouts.

This year, the poor Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded a colossal 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the biggest rate in football.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Las Vegas's unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being called for in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.

Richie James has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (15.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (60.4%).

Richie James's 0.8 adjusted catches per game this season shows a substantial regression in his receiving skills over last season's 4.1 mark.

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