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Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+114/-130).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +121 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +114.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (59.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.While Rhamondre Stevenson has received 3.7% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of New England's offense near the goal line in this contest at 13.0%.Rhamondre Stevenson has accumulated a massive 5.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among RBs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).The Patriots offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.Rhamondre Stevenson's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 85.1% to 88.7%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.The model projects the Patriots to be the 5th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.The projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.48 seconds per snap.Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.9 per game) this year.The predictive model expects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a more integral piece of his team's running game near the end zone in this week's contest (71.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.0% in games he has played).
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