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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +134 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 136.5 plays on offense run: the most among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • While Rhamondre Stevenson has received 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in New England's pass game near the end zone in this week's game at 11.7%.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has posted significantly more air yards this year (8.0 per game) than he did last year (-3.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Patriots to pass on 56.3% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The 8th-fewest plays in football have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a measly 54.4 per game on average).
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
  • The receiving TD line reads "0" on Rhamondre Stevenson's stats page this year.

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