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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+176/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -178 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -230.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • At the present time, the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football in the red zone (60.1% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower run volume.
  • The projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game near the end zone in this contest (47.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (63.8% in games he has played).
  • With an extraordinary 15.1% Red Zone Target Rate (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Rhamondre Stevenson stands among the RB receiving threats with the most usage near the goal line in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has notched a paltry -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 25th percentile among running backs.
  • The New England O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • With an exceptional ratio of 0.41 rushing touchdowns per game (81st percentile), Rhamondre Stevenson has been as one of the best rushing touchdown-scorers in the league since the start of last season.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed the 4th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL to RBs: 0.05 per game since the start of last season.
  • The Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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