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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 21

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+142/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -174 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 130.4 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (32.5 per game) this year.
  • After totaling -3.0 air yards per game last year, Rhamondre Stevenson has posted big gains this year, now pacing 9.0 per game.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson's 18.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 12.8.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 4-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 47.3 plays per game.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has garnered 40.3% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for 0.41 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football when it comes to RBs (86th percentile).

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