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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+123/-156).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -156 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -156.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.0% red zone pass rate.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has compiled significantly more air yards this year (10.0 per game) than he did last year (-3.0 per game).
  • Rhamondre Stevenson's 15.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the league: 88th percentile for running backs.
  • The New England O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Patriots, who are a massive favorite by 13 points.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has been given 44.0% of his offense's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
  • With a terrible ratio of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Rhamondre Stevenson places among the worst receiving TD-scorers in the league among running backs this year.

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