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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+184/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +184.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
  • After accumulating -3.0 air yards per game last year, Rhamondre Stevenson has gotten better this year, now sitting at 10.0 per game.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson's 15.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 86th percentile for RBs.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the model to run just 61.8 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • Out of all RBs, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks in the 86th percentile for red zone carries this year, accounting for 50.0% of the workload in his offense's run game near the end zone.
  • With a terrible rate of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Rhamondre Stevenson rates as one of the bottom receiving touchdown-scorers in football among running backs this year.
  • This year, the imposing Bills defense has yielded a mere 66.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-lowest rate in football.

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