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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Rhamondre Stevenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+116/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.6% red zone pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has accrued far more air yards this year (10.0 per game) than he did last year (-3.0 per game).
  • Rhamondre Stevenson's 16.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the NFL: 86th percentile for RBs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • The model projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has earned 50.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • The receiving touchdown column reads "0" on Rhamondre Stevenson's player page this year.

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