Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 87.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 79.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 87.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 4th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to total 19.7 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (67.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (47.9% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in run blocking.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots will be forced to use backup QB Bailey Zappe in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.4 plays per game.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.