Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (+105/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
Rhamondre Stevenson has run for many more yards per game (59.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
Rhamondre Stevenson has been among the leading RBs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging an impressive 3.78 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 94th percentile.
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 31st-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The New England Patriots have incorporated some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 6th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 36.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be much less involved in his offense's run game this week (46.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.8% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 96 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.