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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • Rhamondre Stevenson's 20.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 12.8.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has been one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 2.5 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson's 90.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season reflects a substantial improvement in his receiving skills over last season's 85.1% figure.
  • The Carolina Panthers pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (86.8%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (86.8%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.3 per game) since the start of last season.
  • When talking about pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

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