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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 21

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 130.4 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (32.5 per game) this year.
  • In this game, Rhamondre Stevenson is anticipated by the model to land in the 83rd percentile among running backs with 3.4 targets.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson's 18.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 12.8.
  • The Patriots O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 4-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 47.3 plays per game.
  • The Broncos pass defense has allowed the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (73%) versus RBs this year (73.0%).
  • When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Denver's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the league.

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