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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -126.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson's 16.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the NFL: 86th percentile for RBs.
  • In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
  • The Bengals pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.8%) versus RBs this year (88.8%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • The model projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

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