Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-190/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 2nd-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
The projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to total 4.6 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
With an excellent 3.3 adjusted catches per game (94th percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson rates among the leading pass-catching RBs in football.
The Giants pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (85.9%) versus RBs this year (85.9%).

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Patriots, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson's 19.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 25.3.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Giants safeties project as the 10th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in defending receivers.

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