Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 13, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-180/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been more involved as a potential target this season (65.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (22.7%).
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to garner 8.3 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.
The New England Patriots offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.