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Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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With a top-tier 44.3% Route Participation Rate (75th percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson rates as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the NFL.After accumulating -3.0 air yards per game last season, Rhamondre Stevenson has undergone big improvement this season, currently sitting at 7.0 per game.The New England Patriots O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.With an exceptional 17.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (81st percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson rates among the leading pass-catching running backs in football.Rhamondre Stevenson's receiving efficiency has gotten better this year, compiling 8.14 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 4.84 rate last year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Patriots, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 51.7% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.In terms of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.93 seconds per play, the model projects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most sluggish in football (adjusted for context) at the moment.Windy weather conditions (like the 19-mph being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with worse passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.Rhamondre Stevenson's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this season, notching a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.15 rate last season.
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