Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to accrue 6.7 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack this season (17.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (5.3%).
Rhamondre Stevenson has totaled a lot more receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (9.0).

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
Rhamondre Stevenson's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, compiling a measly 5.92 yards-per-target compared to a 6.92 mark last year.
Rhamondre Stevenson's talent in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this year, notching a measly 7.41 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.93 rate last year.
The New England Patriots offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.