Rhamondre Stevenson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Carries

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-148/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to earn 16.2 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this season (56.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (34.9%).

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.4% run rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 9th-best group of safeties in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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