Rex Burkhead Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing TD

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 10:10 PM EST

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+412/-900).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +435 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +412.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 7th-most run-oriented team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 44.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-most touchdowns in the league (1.10 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends project as the 7th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Texans are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans have incorporated motion in their offense on 30.9% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.