Rashod Bateman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Rashod Bateman

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Rashod Bateman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 67.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Rashod Bateman to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (18.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.8% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 117.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in football.
Rashod Bateman's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 71.5% to 47.7%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (60.7%) to wideouts since the start of last season (60.7%).
The New England Patriots defense has conceded the 6th-least passing touchdowns in the league to wideouts: 0.79 per game since the start of last season.