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Rashid Shaheed Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-280).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -270 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -280.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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A throwing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.The predictive model expects the Saints to run the most total plays among all teams this week with 68.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.The Saints offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.Rashid Shaheed's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 46.9% to 66.1%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.Rashid Shaheed, who has been given 4.0% of his team's rush attempts near the end zone this year (98th percentile), is fortunate to be in the unique position (for a WR) of being involved in the New Orleans Saints red zone ground game.After accruing 121.0 air yards per game last year, Rashid Shaheed has been a disappointment this year, now averaging 74.0 per game.Rashid Shaheed's 49.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 72.0.This year, the tough Buccaneers defense has surrendered a measly 61.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 9th-smallest rate in football.
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