Rashee Rice Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Rashee Rice

NFL · Player Props

Rashee Rice

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 6, 2024 12:41 AM EST

Analysis

Rashee Rice Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-167/+128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense last year: most in the league.
In this week's game, Rashee Rice is predicted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers with 8.5 targets.
With a remarkable 19.1% Target Share (76th percentile) last year, Rashee Rice has been as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.
In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 28.36 seconds per snap, the model projects the Chiefs to be the 6th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.
Last year, the tough Ravens defense has surrendered a paltry 59.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-smallest rate in the league.
The Ravens safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

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