Rashaad Penny Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Rashaad Penny

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 2:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Rashaad Penny Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to notch 12.6 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The Detroit Lions defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to be much less involved in his offense's run game this week (51.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (62.7% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.