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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Las Vegas Raiders vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Raheem Mostert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+620/-810).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +640 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +620.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 61.8% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football in this setting has been the Raiders.
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
  • The predictive model expects Raheem Mostert to be much less involved in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone in this week's game (12.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (27.1% in games he has played).
  • When talking about air yards, Raheem Mostert ranks in the towering 88th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accumulating a monstrous 2.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Raiders, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see only 127.5 total plays run: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • With a middling 0.0% Red Zone Target Share (1st percentile) this year, Raheem Mostert rates as one of the pass-game running backs with the lowest utilization rates near the goal line in the league.
  • The receiving touchdown line reads "0" on Raheem Mostert's box scores since the start of last season.
  • The opposing side have rushed for the most touchdowns in the NFL (2.00 per game) versus the Titans defense this year.

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