Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-139/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game.
When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the effect it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Dolphins profiles as the 7th-best in football last year.
Raheem Mostert's 72.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year reflects an impressive growth in his rushing proficiency over last year's 54.0 figure.
With an excellent record of 5.23 adjusted yards per carry (90th percentile), Raheem Mostert ranks as one of the leading RBs in football this year.
With an exceptional rate of 3.50 yards after contact (93rd percentile), Raheem Mostert rates as one of the most effective running backs in football this year.

Favors Under

The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.2% run rate.
The model projects the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
The model projects Raheem Mostert to be a much smaller part of his team's running game this week (40.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (58.0% in games he has played).

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