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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 2

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+367/-738).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +378 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +367.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (32.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (20.0% in games he has played).

The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

The Miami Dolphins have used some form of misdirection on 56.0% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least TDs in the NFL (0.72 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.

The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends project as the 6th-best DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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