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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 15

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-250).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (70.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.0% in games he has played).

The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 28th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-least run-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 38.9% red zone run rate.

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.62 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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