Raheem Mostert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +138 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.1% pass rate.
The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (78.6%) to running backs since the start of last season (78.6%).

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