Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-127/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
Raheem Mostert has run a route on 51.9% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Raheem Mostert has put up a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.