Raheem Mostert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to total 16.5 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Raheem Mostert has received 54.9% of his offense's carries this year, ranking in the 88th percentile among RBs.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles project as the best group of DTs in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Miami Dolphins have gone for it on 4th down just 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.