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Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-119).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to earn 14.6 carries in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs.Raheem Mostert has received 50.0% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.The New York Jets safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Dolphins rank as the 10th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 33.4% run rate.THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
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