Raheem Mostert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Raheem Mostert

NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to earn 14.6 carries in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
Raheem Mostert has received 50.0% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
The New York Jets safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 33.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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