Raheem Mostert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Raheem Mostert

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 10:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Raheem Mostert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends rank as the worst unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be much less involved in his team's running game this week (42.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (57.7% in games he has played).