Rachaad White Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Rachaad White

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Rachaad White Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The projections expect Rachaad White to accumulate 4.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Rachaad White has accumulated a paltry -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 13th percentile among running backs.
Rachaad White has been among the worst RBs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 3rd percentile.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (76%) versus running backs since the start of last season (76.0%).
The Saints pass defense has displayed good efficiency against RBs since the start of last season, giving up 5.02 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the league.