Quintin Morris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Quintin Morris

NFL · Player Props

Quintin Morris

TE · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills · Week 19, 2025

Updated Jan 11, 2026 4:52 PM UTC

Analysis

Quintin Morris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-167).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league (63.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).
With a terrific 86.3% Adjusted Catch% (84th percentile) this year, Quintin Morris rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to tight ends.
When it comes to safeties getting after the quarterback, Buffalo's unit has been lousy this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bills, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.3 per game) this year.
With a low 2.1% Target% (22nd percentile) this year, Quintin Morris rates among the TEs with the most usage in football.
Quintin Morris has been one of the bottom pass-game TEs this year, averaging a measly 1.0 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 12th percentile when it comes to TEs.
The Bills pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (67%) vs. tight ends this year (67.0%).

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